The Power of Doubt
Leading in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Lynn Harris
This article is set within the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Its purpose is to challenge the established wisdom that leaders need to be confident and certain, and instead, encourage leaders to embrace a power of doubt mindset as a basis for better decision-making and creativity.
The 4th Industrial Revolution
“When compared with previous revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.” i
Klaus Schwab,
Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
In 2016, the World Economic Forum coined the phrase the 4th Industrial Revolution. Each time we experience an industrial revolution, the way in which we work changes: The First Industrial Revolution mechanized production through the use of steam power, the second used electric power to create mass production, and the third automated production through electronics and information technology. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is digital and is characterized by emerging technologies such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, blockchain and biotechnology. A distinctive aspect of this revolution is its speed and reach. The world of work is changing, and past ways of thinking and leading are rapidly becoming redundant.
The World Economic Forum’s report, The Future of Jobs ii, examines employment, skills and workforce strategy needed for the future. After surveying chief human resources and strategy officers from leading global employers, they predicted the top 3 skills needed in 2020 will be complex problem solving, critical thinking, and creativity. Developing fluency in these skills requires 4th Industrial Revolution leaders to let go of their need for certainty and embrace a power of doubt mindset. Questions arising from doubt open possibilities for complex problemsolving, critical thinking and creativity, whereas certainty tends to close them down. Doubt makes us explore, listen and reinvent; whereas certainty makes us dig in and preach. Giving up certainty is, however, a tough ask.
The Power of Certainty
“People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.” iii
Daniel Kahneman, psychologist
Throughout the first three industrial revolutions we valued those who seemed certain of themselves and the world around them and devalued those who showed doubt and uncertainty. This is particularly true of leaders. We looked to our leaders to provide certainty and comfort, and often criticized those who showed uncertainty and doubt. This makes sense given the way in which our brain has evolved and what we have come to value as a society.
Our brain craves certainty: a feeling of certainty feels rewarding - it provides a nice shot of dopamine when we believe we know or are certain of something - it closes a cognitive loop, which feels satisfying. Whereas, a sense of uncertainty generates a strong, psychological threat response – something our brain wants to avoid. We have developed a number of cognitive 3 biases (mental shortcuts that help us to quickly process information and make decisions) to avoid uncertainty. Confirmation bias, for example, is a tendency to look for and believe information that supports what we already think, and to discount evidence to the contrary.
Authority bias gives more weight to the opinions and ideas of those with positional or expert power; Conformity bias leads us to follow the majority view, even if against our own personal judgment; and Ambiguity bias favours options where the outcome is more certain and knowable. Biases such as these resolve our need for certainty and help us process vast amounts of information to make speedy decisions. However, within the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution, they also restrict complex problem solving, critical thinking, and creativity because they favour the safe path of what we already know or what we want to believe.
In addition, most of us have benefitted from an education system that values certainty. We are taught subjects that have answers and it is our job as students to know the answers, get things right and pass the exam. Consequently, we have developed a societal preference for answers over questions and for leaders who provide these answers. This sets up a beautiful reinforcing loop between leaders who are valued for their confidence and certainty, and those being led who crave the psychological safety of answers over ambiguity.
Embracing doubt as a leadership mindset therefore seems somewhat foolish and dangerous. Not only might we unnerve and potentially lose followers who want certainty, we might even lose our own sense of identity as a leader. Who wants to risk that?
The Power of Doubt
“…please run, do not walk, to the nearest exit when you hear so-called leaders being certain of any particular policy. Only in the absence of certainty can we have open-mindedness, mental flexibility and willingness to contemplate alternative ideas.”iv
Robert Burton, Neurologist
As threatening and uncomfortable as it may seem to replace a mindset of certainty with one of doubt, we will not succeed and remain relevant in the 4th Industrial Revolution unless we do so. We need to re-evaluate our relationship with certainty and recognize that there is power in doubt. This is especially true for anyone who chooses to lead. The exponential rate of change creates a world that is moving and changing so quickly that what we feel sure of today can quickly change to something different tomorrow. If leaders try to hang onto old certainties, they, and the people they lead, will be left behind.
Clinging to old knowledge and certainties also creates autocratic leadership – if we are certain, we do not need alternative ideas and opinions. Complex problem solving, critical thinking and creativity require collective effort and diverse collaboration. 4th Industrial Revolution leaders cannot have all the answers, and therefore collaboration with diverse groups of people becomes a leadership imperative. Certainty is the home of autocracy, and there is no place for autocratic leadership in the new world of work.
To thrive and lead in this new world we need to notice when we operate from a position of certainty and start to entertain the notion that doubt might serve us better. I am not suggesting that we develop a chronic lack of self-confidence and start to doubt everything we do. What I am suggesting is that we develop enough self-confidence to accept that our certainty might be misplaced and unhelpful. Certainty will not help us to solve complex problems, think critically and create innovative solutions.
The 4th Industrial Revolution will be tough for those who insist on clinging to certainty, but exciting for those who are able to embrace the power of doubt. To develop this mindset, you could start by experimenting with some of the following practices:
Get into the habit of asking yourself: ‘What if I’m wrong.’ Asking this question will open your mind to other possibilities.
Play Devil’s Advocate: think through some of your problems by reversing your assumptions. Not only will this keep you on your toes, it can yield creative new answers.
Create challenging dialogue: deliberately seek out people who can test your thinking, especially people who are likely to oppose your views.
Explore the unknowns: figure out the unknowns in any project or situation. Be aware of what you don’t know and don’t have answers to, and it will help you respond when new information appears.
Explore and manage the 16 cognitive biasesv that can impede your thinking and decision-making. If you feel certain that these practices are not relevant to you, try going back to practice number 1 and ask yourself, ‘What if I’m wrong?’
i Schwab, K. (2017) The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Crown Publishing Group
ii World Economic Forum (2018) The Future of Jobs Report
iii Singai, J. (2013) Daniel Kahneman’s Gripe with Behavioral Economics. Daily Beast.
iv Scientific American (2008) The Certainty Bias: A Potentially Dangerous Mental Flaw
v Pinder, M. 16 cognitive biases that can kill your decision making. Board of Innovation.
Lynn Harris has 20 years’ experience in supporting senior executives to be outstanding leaders and to create high performing and healthy teams. She works with organizations internationally and leads her own coaching practice based in Montreal, Canada.